Current:Home > MyConsumer credit grows at moderate pace as Fed rate hikes take hold. -Visionary Wealth Guides
Consumer credit grows at moderate pace as Fed rate hikes take hold.
PredictIQ View
Date:2025-04-09 23:36:41
Consumer credit rose in June as Americans took out larger car loans but cut back on credit card spending, according to the latest Federal Reserve data.
Overall credit increased $17.8 billion, topping economists' average forecast for a $13 billion gain, to $4.977 trillion in June, the Fed said late Monday. May's borrowing also was revised up by about $2 billion.
Though consumer credit rose in June, helped by brisk car sales in June, overall credit increases have moderated over the past year, showing the Fed's aggressive interest rate hikes to squelch spending and lower inflation are working.
Are consumers using more credit?
Overall consumer credit rose in June by $18.5 billion to $3.735 trillion, but mostly because of a jump in "nonrevolving credit." That refers to lump sum loans - such as student loans, mortgages are car loans - that are paid back only once.
Learn more: Best current CD rates
The value of loans for vehicle purchases reached a record high in the three months leading up to June. Meanwhile, student loans fell.
The pace of consumer credit growth has been slowing though in the past year.
Is credit card debt surging?
Credit card and other short-term debt fell in June by $600 million, the first decline since April 2021, to $1.262 trillion.
The decline in credit card debt "likely reflects the sharp increase in interest rates charged for credit cards, which as of May was 20.68% – the highest since the Fed's data begins in 1972 and up from 14.51% in January 2022," said James Knightley, investment bank ING's chief international economist, in a report.
Does the slowdown in consumer credit mean we can avoid recession?
Not necessarily. "Given consumer spending is two-thirds of economic activity in the U.S., this is a troubling signal," Knightley said.
Consumers spending has remained resilient despite 40-year high inflation because of excess savings built up during the pandemic when Americans had few places to spend their money. If savings dwindle as they're expected to, and interest rates remain high, spending can come to an abrupt halt and send the economy into recession, some economists say.
"We think lower-income households have fully exhausted their excess savings as of the second quarter (or three months to June), while middle- and higher-income households are less willing to spend their remaining excess savings," investment bank Morgan Stanley's economists said in a note.
Student loan repayments resuming this fall will likely squeeze spending further, they said.
Recession watch:Where is the US economy headed? These 4 factors hold the answer. Here's what to watch for.
What might help consumers stay on track and the U.S. avoid recession?
Only if incomes rise faster than inflation for a significant period will consumers be able to carry on with their spending, Knightley said.
"While this is possible, it highlights again that the risks for economic activity, particularly for the household sector, remain to the downside," he said.
But with the labor market softening, income growth may be limited, Morgan Stanley said.
Medora Lee is a money, markets, and personal finance reporter at USA TODAY. You can reach her at [email protected] and subscribe to our free Daily Money newsletter for personal finance tips and business news every Monday through Friday morning.
veryGood! (926)
Related
- New Mexico governor seeks funding to recycle fracking water, expand preschool, treat mental health
- A firefighting helicopter crashed in Southern California while fighting a blaze, officials say
- ‘Barbie’ joins $1 billion club, breaks another record for female directors
- Bloomsbury USA President Adrienne Vaughan Killed During Boating Accident in Italy's Amalfi Coast
- Realtor group picks top 10 housing hot spots for 2025: Did your city make the list?
- 8-year-old Chicago girl fatally shot by man upset with kids making noise, witnesses say
- Jamie Foxx apologizes after post interpreted as antisemitic: 'That was never my intent'
- Trump lawyer says Pence will be defense's best witness in 2020 election case as former VP disputes claims
- Civic engagement nonprofits say democracy needs support in between big elections. Do funders agree?
- Hank the Tank, Lake Tahoe bear linked to at least 21 home invasions, has been captured
Ranking
- Head of the Federal Aviation Administration to resign, allowing Trump to pick his successor
- Suddenly repulsed by your partner? You may have gotten 'the ick.' Here's what that means.
- Lionel Messi, Inter Miami face FC Dallas in Leagues Cup Round of 16: How to stream
- Andrew Tate, influencer facing rape and trafficking charges in Romania, released from house arrest
- $73.5M beach replenishment project starts in January at Jersey Shore
- Democrats see Michigan and Minnesota as guides for what to do with majority power
- Simone Biles wins U.S. Classic, her first gymnastics competition in 2 years
- Tory Lanez to be sentenced for shooting Megan Thee Stallion
Recommendation
What do we know about the mysterious drones reported flying over New Jersey?
Simone Biles wins U.S. Classic, her first gymnastics competition in 2 years
Ex-Minneapolis officer faces sentencing on a state charge for his role in George Floyd’s killing
Heat rash treatment: What to know about the condition and how to get rid of it quick
New Mexico governor seeks funding to recycle fracking water, expand preschool, treat mental health
Russia blasts Saudi Arabia talks on ending war in Ukraine after Moscow gets no invitation to attend
Usher Weighs In On Debate Over Keke Palmer's Concert Appearance After Her Boyfriend's Critical Comments
'Down goes Anderson!' Jose Ramirez explains what happened during Guardians-White Sox fight